{
  "slug": "global-macro",
  "name": "Global Macro",
  "aliases": [
    "Macro"
  ],
  "category": "macro",
  "parent_strategy": null,
  "child_strategies": [
    "discretionary-macro",
    "systematic-macro",
    "fixed-income-macro",
    "fx-macro"
  ],
  "description": "A top-down strategy that takes directional and relative-value positions across asset classes (rates, FX, equity indices, commodities, credit) based on views about macroeconomic regimes, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and geopolitics.",
  "investment_thesis": "Macroeconomic variables (growth, inflation, monetary policy, capital flows) drive cross-asset returns; superior forecasting and risk allocation can generate uncorrelated returns.",
  "edge_source": "Pattern recognition across cycles, central-bank reading, real-economy nowcasting, geopolitical analysis, and disciplined risk allocation.",
  "typical_holding_period": "Days to 2 years; trades sized to thesis horizon",
  "typical_leverage": {
    "min": 1,
    "max": 6,
    "typical": 3
  },
  "expected_volatility": {
    "min": 8,
    "max": 20,
    "unit": "annualized-pct"
  },
  "expected_sharpe": {
    "low": 0.5,
    "high": 1.3
  },
  "drawdown_profile": "Tail-prone; idiosyncratic to manager. Long volatility profiles often have positive skew with negatively-skewed tail months.",
  "correlation_to_equities": 0.1,
  "correlation_to_bonds": 0.1,
  "liquidity_profile": "monthly",
  "instruments_used": [
    "futures",
    "FX forwards",
    "FX options",
    "swaps",
    "government bonds",
    "swaptions",
    "credit indices"
  ],
  "asset_classes": [
    "rates",
    "fx",
    "equities",
    "commodities",
    "credit"
  ],
  "primary_risks": [
    "regime change",
    "central bank pivots",
    "geopolitical tail events",
    "carry-trade reversals",
    "thematic concentration"
  ],
  "macro_regime_sensitivity": {
    "rising_rates": "Often a tailwind, especially for trend-following macro.",
    "falling_rates": "Mixed; depends on positioning",
    "high_volatility": "Generally favorable to discretionary macro",
    "low_volatility": "Carry-driven returns dominate; alpha narrow",
    "recession": "Strong if positioned ahead of the regime shift",
    "bull_market": "Underperforms long-only equity"
  },
  "fee_structure": {
    "management_fee": "1.5%-2.5%",
    "performance_fee": "20%-30% (some elite shops 30%+)",
    "high_water_mark": true
  },
  "key_metrics": [
    "Sharpe ratio",
    "Sortino ratio",
    "max drawdown",
    "skew",
    "Calmar ratio",
    "regime attribution"
  ],
  "notable_practitioners": [
    "Stanley Druckenmiller",
    "Paul Tudor Jones",
    "Louis Bacon",
    "Alan Howard",
    "Chris Rokos"
  ],
  "exemplar_funds": [
    "bridgewater",
    "brevan-howard",
    "rokos-capital",
    "tudor-investment"
  ],
  "related_terms": [
    "carry-trade",
    "yield-curve",
    "central-bank",
    "duration",
    "fx",
    "convexity"
  ],
  "related_strategies": [
    "managed-futures",
    "fixed-income-relative-value"
  ],
  "historical_drawdowns": [
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "event": "Post-crisis flat performance",
      "estimated_drawdown_pct": -5
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "event": "Volmageddon and trade-war whipsaw",
      "estimated_drawdown_pct": -7
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "event": "Inflation regime shift (positive for many macro funds)",
      "estimated_drawdown_pct": 0
    }
  ],
  "academic_foundations": [
    "Mundell-Fleming model",
    "Taylor rule",
    "Soros — Theory of Reflexivity"
  ]
}